SMCI stock price decline on lowered Q1 outlook may be overdone: here’s why
Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ: SMCI) tanked nearly 8.0% this morning after downwardly revising its Q1 revenue forecast due to delays in customer delivery schedules for major AI deals.
The AI server specialist now expects $5.0 billion in revenue for the quarter ended September 30th, below its previous guidance of $6.0 billion (at least) and short of the Street’s call for $6.52 billion.
However, for long-term investors, today’s decline may only be an opportunity to initiate or expand their existing positions in the SMCI stock.
Why reduced Q1 forecast isn’t a problem for SMCI stock
While Supermicro management trimmed the Q1 outlook on Thursday, it stood by its broader target of achieving at least $33 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026 as a whole.
In the press release, the executives attributed this confidence to “robust demand” for the company’s AI-optimised server solutions and revealed it has secured more than $12 billion worth of new business, with deliveries scheduled for Q2.
This confirms the first-quarter miss is more of a timing issue than a demand problem.
Charles Liang – the firm’s chief executive – emphasised that customer engagements remain strong, and multi-quarter deployments are ramping.
For those invested in SMCI shares, this backlog indicates durable momentum and validates Super Micro’s positioning as a key enabler of generative AI workloads.
New AI systems to drive Supermicro shares higher
Supermicro has recently expanded its portfolio with high-performance server systems tailored for AI, high-performance compute (HPC), and edge computing.
These include liquid-cooled platforms featuring Blackwell Ultra (Nvidia) and Xeon 6 (Intel) processors, designed to handle the most demanding workloads.
The company’s Data Centre Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) allow clients to rapidly deploy turnkey infrastructure, reducing setup time and improving energy efficiency.
With hyperscalers and enterprises racing to build AI capacity, SMCI’s ability to deliver customised, scalable solutions gives it a meaningful competitive edge.
These innovations not only support margin expansion but also deepen customer stickiness in a fast-growing market, which could translate to continued momentum in Supermicro’s share price over time.
SMCI valuation is compelling amid the AI boom
Investors should consider buying the dip in Supermicro stock also because it’s now trading at an attractive valuation on a relative basis.
The company’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio currently sits at 1.48, well below the top AI stocks.
Nvidia, for example, is going for nearly 34 at the time of writing.
More importantly, the artificial intelligence market is broadly seen as in its early innings only, with Morgan Stanley estimating some $400 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year alone.
This suggests SMCI stock is well-positioned to grow its market share rather significantly heading into 2026.
Therefore, for long-term investors, the current pullback may represent a buying opportunity in a name that’s not just riding the AI wave – but helping build it.
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