Chainlink has broken through the $12.50 level we flagged four days ago, with LINK trading around $12.92 at approximately 5:05 p.m. UTC on September 7, up about 5.1% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
The move completes the setup FinanceFeeds identified on September 3, when LINK had rebounded from the $10.80 support zone and was targeting resistance at $12.50. That level has now been cleared decisively, shifting the question from whether the breakout happens to whether traders are positioned for it to continue.
Derivatives data suggests participation is increasing alongside the price. But the rally is already technically stretched, and a large holder has continued moving millions of LINK onto Coinbase.
Chainlink Clears the $12.50 Target
FinanceFeeds’ September 3 analysis, “Chainlink Ready to Rally: Key Support Holds for Push to $12.50,” argued that LINK’s reversal from $10.80 support created room for a move toward $12.50.
Four days later, LINK traded as high as roughly $13.63 at around 6:15 a.m. UTC on September 7. CoinCentral recorded LINK at $13.308 during an earlier snapshot, representing a 10.83% 24-hour gain at that point, while trading volume had climbed 25% to more than $503 million.
By approximately 5:05 p.m. UTC, LINK had pulled back to around $12.92 after reaching a session high near $13.63 earlier in the day. CoinGecko showed approximately $887 million in 24-hour trading volume, with LINK trading in roughly a $12.83-$12.93 range during the final hour of the snapshot.
That means the original $12.50 resistance call has not merely been touched. At around $12.92, LINK remained approximately 3.4% above that level, although the pullback from the $13.63 intraday high shows that some of the breakout momentum had already faded.
Derivatives Traders Are Adding Exposure
The strongest confirmation comes from derivatives positioning.
LINK derivatives open interest rose 8.26% to approximately $696.89 million, alongside the increase in spot trading volume. Rising price and rising open interest together generally indicate that new leveraged positions are entering the market rather than the move being driven solely by traders closing existing shorts.
That does not establish that the new positioning is predominantly bullish, but it shows that traders are committing more capital as LINK breaks higher.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said he sees the next potential target zone around $14.50-$15. That is the analyst’s target, not a FinanceFeeds forecast.
LINK’s RSI Is Already Overbought
The counterargument is sitting directly in the technical data.
Earlier in the session, LINK’s RSI14 reached 75.83 as price moved above its upper Bollinger Band, placing the token above the conventional 70 threshold used to identify overbought conditions. As LINK pulled back from its intraday high, later readings showed RSI cooling toward 65, indicating that some of the earlier overbought pressure was already unwinding.
An overbought RSI does not mean LINK must reverse. Strong trends can remain above 70 for extended periods. It does mean the risk-reward has changed substantially from September 3, when the trade was based on support holding below $12.50.
At around $12.92, traders are still buying after the breakout rather than ahead of it, but at a lower price than the session’s $13.63 peak.
A Whale Has Moved 2.41 Million LINK to Coinbase
There is also an on-chain supply risk.
A large wallet deposited another 620,420 LINK, worth roughly $7.6 million, to Coinbase on September 7. Over the past three weeks, the same address has transferred about 2.41 million LINK, valued at approximately $26 million, to the exchange.
That activity deserves attention, but it should not be overstated. Sending tokens to an exchange does not prove they were sold. The LINK could be used for custody, collateral, an OTC transaction or another purpose. Blockchain data confirms the transfers, not the holder’s intention.
For now, the September 3 setup worked: $10.80 held, $12.50 broke, and derivatives participation expanded with the rally. But LINK’s retreat from roughly $13.63 to around $12.92 shows that holding the breakout is already becoming the next test.
The next test is harder. LINK now has to convert that breakout into sustained trading above $12.50 while absorbing both an overbought RSI and the potential supply represented by continued whale deposits.
