SovEcon slashes Ukraine’s 2025-26 corn export outlook amid sluggish start to season
Amid a sluggish start to the season and ample global supply, agricultural consultancy SovEcon has cut its forecast for Ukraine’s corn exports in the 2025-26 season.
The agricultural consultancy now expects corn exports during the 2025-26 (July–June) season at 26.8 million metric tons, 400,000 metric tons lower than its previous projection.
The latest data on Ukrainian corn exports reveals a concerning trend: cumulative exports from July through November reached only 3.7 million metric tons.
Shortfall
This figure represents the lowest export volume recorded for this five-month period in eight years, signaling a significant setback for a key sector of the Ukrainian economy and a major global commodity market, SovEcon said.
The primary factor driving this sharp decline in export volumes is the substantial delay in the corn harvest, the consultancy said.
Persistent, unseasonal rainfall across key growing regions significantly hampered harvesting operations.
As of early December, Ukrainian farmers had only managed to harvest 78% of the total planted corn area, according to SovEcon.
This contrasts sharply with the pace set a year earlier, when 96% of the corn area had already been brought in by the same date.
The 18-percentage-point differential in harvesting progress illustrates the severity of the weather-induced disruption.
The delayed harvest has a direct and immediate impact on export logistics.
Typically, a fully harvested crop is needed to maintain a steady and high-volume flow through the export infrastructure, including rail lines, river barges, and Black Sea ports.
With a significant portion of the crop still in the fields, the supply pipeline to the export terminals has been restricted, leading directly to the sluggish export figures.
Global supply and shifting shipment peak
High global corn supply presents further challenges for Ukrainian shipments, SovEcon said.
The USDA forecasts a record-high 78 million metric tons for US corn exports this season.
Furthermore, exports from key South American producers, Argentina and Brazil, are anticipated to reach 80 mmt, their highest level in five years.
The consultancy added:
More frequent strikes on Ukraine’s rail infrastructure (inc. depots) have also created difficulties for moving grain within the country.
Ukraine’s corn exports experienced a predictable seasonal increase in November, aligning with the ramp-up of the annual harvest.
Specifically, 1.8 mmt of corn were shipped during the month, which represents a doubling of the export volume compared to the 0.9 mmt shipped in October.
However, despite this month-over-month surge, the export performance for November remains subdued when viewed in a broader historical context.
The 1.8 mmt exported is notably lower than the volumes recorded in previous years. To illustrate the shortfall, it is significantly below the 2.6 mmt exported in November of the preceding year.
Furthermore, it lags behind the multiyear average for November, which typically stands at 2.9 mmt.
The USDA in November projected Ukraine’s corn exports at 24.5 mmt.
“SovEcon estimates Ukraine’s 2025 corn crop at 32.0 mmt versus 26.9 mmt a year earlier, despite harvest delays,” Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, said.
With the export program accelerating later than usual, the peak of shipments will likely shift to a later period, which may continue to put pressure on global prices given the ample world supply.
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