Tom Rogers, a media industry veteran and senior adviser at Versent, says Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) earnings on November 13 aren’t just about numbers – they’re about proving the giant’s evolution is working.
In a CNBC interview today, Rogers said Disney’s earnings will offer critical insight into the firm’s transformation from legacy media titan to streaming-first operator.
Ahead of the quarterly release, Disney stock is up nearly 40% versus its April low, and several key themes, according to the industry mogul, will determine its trajectory heading into 2026.
Here are the three biggest storylines he’ll be watching in Disney’s Q4 earnings on Thursday.
Streaming bundle traction: the $29.99 question
Rogers is particularly interested in how Disney’s new streaming bundle, comprising Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ Unlimited at $29.99, is performing.
“That really goes to the heart of Disney’s advantage,” he said, citing the company’s unique ability to combine family entertainment, adult content, and live sports.
According to him, the bundle’s success could be a litmus test for Disney’s ability to drive revenue growth in streaming, especially as it stops reporting individual subscriber numbers after Q4.
Rogers sees this as a pivotal moment: if the bundle gains traction, it validates Disney’s strategy of leveraging its diverse content portfolio.
If not, however, it could raise questions about pricing power and consumer appetite in a crowded streaming landscape, which may not bode well for DIS shares in 2026.
Legacy erosion and the YouTube TV standoff
The ongoing dispute between Disney and YouTube TV – which has left ESPN and other Disney-owned channels dark for weeks – is, in Rogers’ view, emblematic of a deeper shift.
“That never would have happened before,” he said, noting the timing during peak football season.
Historically, Disney’s brand clout and sports dominance would’ve resolved such conflicts swiftly.
The prolonged blackout suggests that legacy media’s leverage is waning, even for a powerhouse like Disney.
Rogers sees this as a warning sign: while Disney leads the legacy pack, the pack itself seems to be losing marketplace strength.
Disney’s earnings call may offer more colour on how it plans to restore its negotiating power and protect its linear revenue base – and that could contribute meaningfully in setting the direction for Disney shares, according to Tom Rogers.
Streaming margins and global growth gaps
While Disney’s streaming revenue is now exceeding its legacy media sales, Tom Rogers remains cautious.
He contrasts Disney’s margin aspirations (hoping for 10%) with 30% plus for Netflix, highlighting investor scepticism.
“There’s still a number of questions out there,” he argued, about whether Disney’s transformation will yield a business as powerful as its former self.
He also flagged slowing global growth as a concern, especially as rivals like HBO Max expand internationally.
Disney must prove it can scale globally and improve profitability to regain investor confidence – potentially unlocking further upside for DIS shares in 2026.
In short, tomorrow’s earnings could offer clues about whether Disney is still the leader, or if it’s slipping behind, Rogers concluded.
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